Mariners on the Brink: One Fix Away from October Baseball
If you’re a Mariners fan, you’re probably used to heart-pounding finishes, near misses, and a healthy dose of cautious optimism. Well, in 2025, cautious optimism might actually be too cautious. This team is one fix away from not just making the postseason—but making some real noise when they get there.
Let’s break it down.
The Pitching: A Fortress on the Mound
Seattle’s rotation is an absolute wagon. In 2024, they led all of MLB in ERA (3.38), innings pitched, quality starts, K/BB ratio, and opponent OPS. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Luis Castillo headline a staff that gives this team a shot every single night. Simply put: the pitching staff is doing their job. You can pencil them in as one of the most elite groups in baseball—and the best in the AL West.
But as you know, pitching doesn’t win if nobody scores runs. And this is where things get interesting.
The Offense: A Puzzle With a Missing Piece
Last year, the Mariners ranked 21st in runs scored, 25th in slugging percentage, and 29th in team batting average. Those aren’t numbers you’d typically associate with a playoff team. But hold on—the problem isn’t that they’re swinging at bad pitches. In fact, they swing at strikes more than most teams and chase out of the zone less than most teams.
Translation? The approach is sound. The pitch selection is good. The eyes are doing the job.
So what gives?
Here’s the rub: when they swing in the zone, they miss—a lot. In fact, their in-zone whiff rate was among the worst in baseball in 2024. That means this isn’t a discipline issue—it’s an execution issue. And that’s actually great news.
Why?
Because that’s fixable.
What’s the Fix?
It comes down to two things: mechanics and contact mindset. If you’re swinging at the right pitches but missing them, you don’t need to re-learn the strike zone—you need to adjust your swing. That could mean better timing mechanisms, simplified swings in advantage counts, or more contact-first approaches in key situations.
And let’s be honest—this offense doesn’t need to be top 5 to win. They just need to be middle of the pack with this rotation. A modest uptick in contact could lead to a big leap in run production.
The Key Bats
•Julio Rodríguez: The superstar centerpiece. If he can avoid early-season slumps and cut down on the in-zone whiffs, he’s an MVP candidate.
•Victor Robles: Sets the tone at the top. Great OBP guy and if he can replicate his at bats of last year it’s a game-changer.
•Cal Raleigh: Brings power, but also swing-and-miss. If he levels out his in-zone approach, the offense instantly deepens.
• Jorge Polanco: Bring him back was a risk but so far the at bats have been very good and the move to 3B could fill the hole.
What Needs to Happen for October Baseball
1.In-zone contact must improve. Keep the discipline, keep swinging at strikes—but start putting the ball in play.
2.Mechanical tune-ups early in the season. Get swing paths right before June—not after the All-Star break.
3.Stay healthy. A healthy Julio and consistent middle infield could push this offense over the hump.
4.Trust the process. Don’t blow up the approach. The foundation is there. Just refine the execution.
Hitting Coaches are the right fit! Kevin Seitzer as their hitting coach and Bobby Magallanes as his assistant, with Edgar Martinez serving as the Senior Director of Hitting Strategy.
This combination of mechanical, approach and experience we should see a constant improvement from all the hitters.
Final Thought
PECOTA and FanGraphs project the Mariners to win between 84–86 games with a better-than-even shot at the playoffs. That’s without assuming this one crucial fix gets made. If it does? We could be looking at 90+ wins and a team nobody wants to face in a short series.
So Mariners fans, keep the faith. The M’s aren’t broken. They’re just misfiring. And if that swing starts connecting more often in the zone, we’ll be seeing those tridents flying high in October.
