Beyond the Numbers: Why Exit Velocity and Pitch Velocity Matter—But Aren’t Everything in Recruiting

baseball, college, mlb, personal development, recruiting, showcase, sports, training
Blog, Locations, Lynnwood, Skagit
Brent Lillibridge
February 4, 2025

In today’s baseball world, metrics like exit velocity and pitch velocity have become the golden standard for recruiting. Players chasing scholarships and professional contracts often prioritize these numbers, hoping to turn heads with a 95+ mph fastball or a 100 mph exit velo. And while these stats certainly matter, they are just the beginning of what college and professional scouts evaluate when making recruiting decisions.

Baseball is evolving, and so is the way talent is evaluated. Beyond raw velocity, organizations at the highest levels are learning how to quantify skills that were once considered intangible—things like whiff rate, pitchability, and baseball IQ. These are the next frontier in player evaluation, and understanding them could be the key to standing out in an ultra-competitive recruiting landscape.

"Baseball is evolving, and so is the way talent is evaluated."

Why Exit Velocity and Pitch Velocity Still Matter

Let’s be clear: velocity is still king. A hitter who can consistently produce high exit velocities has a greater chance of driving the ball with authority. A pitcher who can throw in the mid-90s naturally garners attention. These metrics provide a snapshot of an athlete’s raw ability, physical strength, and potential ceiling.

However, recruiters and scouts don’t just see these numbers in a vacuum. They are looking at how repeatable, functional, and effective that velocity is in real game situations.

•For hitters: Can they consistently generate high exit velocities in-game, or is it just in controlled batting practice? Are they squaring up quality pitching or only thriving against lower competition?

•For pitchers: Is their velocity sustainable over multiple innings? Do they command it effectively, or does their control suffer when they try to light up the radar gun?

Numbers get your foot in the door, but what happens next is what truly separates players.

The Rise of Whiff Rate: Can You Get (or Avoid) the Swing and Miss?

Whiff rate—the percentage of swings that miss—is one of the hottest metrics in baseball analytics. Both at the plate and on the mound, it tells a deeper story than just how hard a ball is hit or thrown.

•For pitchers: A 95 mph fastball is great, but if hitters are squaring it up regularly, it’s not as valuable as an 89 mph fastball with late life that generates swings and misses. Scouts now track which pitches miss bats most often, as whiff rate is one of the strongest indicators of future success.

•For hitters: A player with high exit velocity but an equally high whiff rate may be a red flag. If a hitter struggles to make contact against elite velocity or advanced breaking pitches, their ability to succeed at the next level is in question. The best hitters balance power with contact ability, controlling the zone and limiting unnecessary strikeouts.

Pitchability: Velocity with a Purpose

Pitchability—the ability to effectively mix pitches, change speeds, and attack hitters—is a term that is becoming increasingly measurable. It’s no longer just about “knowing how to pitch”; teams now track advanced data to quantify it.

•Strike quality: Are pitchers landing their off-speed pitches in the right locations? Are they consistently ahead in counts, or do they rely solely on overpowering hitters with velocity?

•Deception & movement: Metrics like induced vertical break, horizontal movement, and spin efficiency are now being used to assess how effective a pitch truly is beyond its speed. A 92 mph fastball with elite ride can be just as, if not more, effective than a straight 96 mph heater.

•Adaptability: Can the pitcher adjust mid-game? Does he have the awareness to sequence pitches effectively and exploit hitters’ weaknesses? This is the difference between a thrower and a pitcher.

Baseball IQ: The X-Factor That Is Now Being Measured

Scouts used to rely on intuition when evaluating a player’s baseball IQ—how well they understand the game, make adjustments, and anticipate plays. Now, technology and data tracking are helping quantify this aspect of the game as well.

•Decision-making at the plate: Does the hitter chase out of the zone too often, or does he have the ability to control the strike zone? Metrics like chase rate and swing decisions help teams measure a player’s plate discipline and overall approach.

•Defensive efficiency: Reaction times, routes to the ball, and positioning are all being tracked with new technology. A player’s ability to take efficient routes in the outfield or get rid of the ball quickly in the infield is now measurable, not just a matter of “good instincts.”

•Baserunning IQ: Speed is one thing, but baserunning intelligence is another. Good baserunners take extra bases, make smart decisions, and avoid unnecessary outs. Some teams are even measuring players’ read times on the bases to evaluate their baserunning instincts.

What This Means for Players Looking to Get Recruited

If you’re an aspiring college or pro player, focusing solely on exit velocity or pitch velocity isn’t enough. The best players separate themselves by developing a complete skill set that translates to in-game success.

Here’s how you can stand out:

•Develop real-game skills: Work on controlling the strike zone, making quality swing decisions, and learning how to generate weak contact as a pitcher.

•Train for efficiency, not just power: Hitters should focus on quality at-bats, not just hitting bombs in BP. Pitchers should focus on command, sequencing, and deception rather than just throwing as hard as possible.

•Improve your adaptability: Be a student of the game. Study pitchers and hitters, understand tendencies, and show that you can make in-game adjustments.

•Showcase your intangibles: Scouts and recruiters are paying attention to how you handle adversity, your work ethic, and how you interact with teammates and coaches.

Conclusion: The Future of Baseball Evaluation

Exit velocity and pitch velocity will always be important in recruiting, but the game is evolving. As teams continue to measure whiff rates, pitchability, and baseball IQ, players who understand and develop these areas will have a distinct advantage.

If you’re serious about getting recruited, don’t just chase numbers—chase skills that translate to winning baseball. The next generation of players will be defined not just by how hard they hit or throw, but by how well they play the game.

PreviousSpring Showdown Series (March and April 2025)

NextSpring Break Camp (April 7-11th, 2025)